Trump ‘an agent of chaos and confusion, warn economists

Global market volatility and geopolitical turbulence in the wake of President Donald Trump’s return to the White House have led to warnings that the US economy could go to a recession – but economists say a decline is not on cards alone.

“I don’t think we’ll talk about an American recession. The American economy is resilient, I would say, mostly despite Donald Trump,” Holger Schmieding, the chief of economist in Berenberg Bank, told the Squawk Box Europe’s CNBC on Monday.

Trump’s duplication of a “agent of chaos and confusion”, Schmieding said “Zigzagging on the president’s fees shows that he has little idea about the potential consequences of his tariff policies”.

However, “American customers have money to spend, [and] They will probably. The Labor Market at the JSC remains quite strong, and with the energy prices that fall a little and maybe some tax cuts and deregistration to come, I don’t think there is a close risk of recession, “according to Schmieding.

“But what is becoming increasingly clear in the long run, Trump is damaging the increase in US tendencies, this is the growth in the years beyond 2026. And it stands for higher prices for American consumers, which means, in my opinion, Fed [Federal Reserve] There is no reason to lower the norms with Trump as president, and Trump sows chaos and confusion, “he noted.

CNBC has contacted the White House for a response and is waiting for an answer.

International stock markets have been shocked on their foundations in recent weeks in the midst of fear that Trump aimed to revive a global trade war after announcing strong import tariffs on goods from China, Mexico and Canada.

Confusion and uncertainty have pursued, as the president announced last Friday that there would be a return and delay on April 2 for several fees for US neighbors and the closest trading partners.

Trump’s unconventional approach to international trade and diplomacy has left unlimited markets with the US indices, while strategists warned that negative market sense was forced to continue in Trump 2.0. The future of American actions dropped earlier Monday morning, showing another rocky trip to US markets at the beginning of the new trading week.

Business executives and economists have expressed concern that tariffs will lead to further inflationary pressures in the US, with consumers likely to keep the burden of higher prices for imported goods.

They also warn that investments, jobs and growth can suffer, as consumers tighten their belts and hunters to expect a period of economic unpredictability and potential “stagflation” marked by high inflation and high unemployment.

This would press against the Fed to hold interest rates, rather than lowering their current standard level at an interval between 4.25%-4.5%, in an effort to stimulate the economy. Lower interest rates can promote more expenses, and, in turn, inflation.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said Friday that the Central Bank can wait to see how the Aggressive Actions of Trump’s policy play before moving back to interest rates.

Recent economic data showing consumer trust have received a hit in February will be food for thought for the Trump administration. The Federal Bank of Atlanta Reserve Reserve GDPNOW TRACKER OF INTRODUCTION METRICS also indicated last week that the US GDP could reduce by 2.4% for the period between January and Mars. A technical recession determines that it is occurring when at least two consecutive neighborhoods record negative growth.

Last week’s job data also showed that while the US labor market is still expanding, signs of weakness can also begin to crawl. Non -high salary data showed that job growth was weaker than expected in February and while job growth is still sustainable, the data comes between Trump’s efforts to reduce the federal workforce.

Non -high salary wages increased by a seasonally regulated 151,000 per month, exceeding the January 125,000 January declining January, but coming under 170,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast, the Bureau of Labor Department Statistics reported on Friday. The unemployment rate increased to 4.1%.

TS chief Lombard, US economist Steven Blitz, said the latest job data “tell us the economy continues to grow” and did not signal “the increased risks of recession created by the Trump policy group”.

However, he said in a Friday note that “the sum of Trump’s actions can still reduce the economy in any way, including an outbreak of capital expenditure.”

“Keep in mind that presidents are known to accept a decline in one of their presidencies. It is a free passage, they blame the previous president and get loans for recovery. My basic case is still growing and Fed Holding Still. My basic concern comes from capital markets, disrupts trade and you will break the economy supporting capital,” Blitz said.

Trump has refused to rule out the possibility of a recession this year, but insisted this weekend the economy was in a “transition period”.

Asked about the Atlanta Fed’s warning of an economic shrinkage from the Fox News News Sunday’s “Future of Sunday morning,” Trump seemed to admit his tariff plans could affect us.

“I hate to predict such things,” he said in an interview aired on Sunday when asked if the recession warning was a concern.

“There is a transition period because what we are doing is very big. We are bringing wealth back to America. That’s a great thing.” The White House leader added, “It takes some time. It takes some time.”

The US market intelligence unit in JPMORGAN last week noted that the US economy was entering the “another period of uncertainty” given the unpredictable nature of tariffs. Analysts said they were taking a “Bearish” position in US actions, waiting for markets to see more instability and for the growth of the US “Crater” potentially.

“We have already seen the negative impact of policy/trade insecurity on both home and corporate expenses, so it seems likely to see a larger size of this over the next month. Keep an eye on the rate of unemployment, vacation, warning notifications, etc. recession, “,”, “, if it scored.

While an American recession was not the scenario of the Bank’s basic issue, JPMORGAN’s analysts warned that “the indefinite fee length and the potential for the trade struggle to see an acceleration in new tariffs [means] We think the shares will be challenged as GDP growth estimates in the US are cut. “

“Given the absence of a possible end of this escalation, the reception is that tariffs of these sizes with drives both Canada and Mexico in a recession. Look for the expectations of GDP growth in the USA for Crater and for profit reviews are materially lower, forcing a renewal of the end of the year. visible, ”.